Subscribe to Moronmeter!Do Republicans Really Want To Be Relevant Anymore?
When I read things like this post on the FoxNews.com blog site, Will Everyone Named McCain Please Leave the Republican Party!, I really have to wonder.
The author, Tommy De Seno, seems to be presenting the following argument:
- John McCain sometimes does things that I don’t think are conservative enough, so he should get the heck out of MY PARTY.
- John McCain’s daughter, Meghan McCain, said some things I don’t like about Ann Coulter and her “followers”. She also poked CPAC. I don’t think she is conservative enough, so she should get the heck out of MY PARTY.
If you want to remain a viable national party, kicking out all of the Moderates (i.e. everyone is isn’t as conservative as you are) doesn’t seem like a very good strategy to me.
According to CNN’s 2008 election exit polls, 44% of the voters identified themselves as a ‘Moderate’, while 34% said they were ‘Conservative’. ‘Liberals’ brought up the rear, with 22% of respondents identifying themselves as such. Of those Moderates, 60% voted for Barack Obama and only 39% voted for McCain.
When you look at the breakdown along party affiliation, the Democrats polled at 39%, the Republicans at 32%, and Independents at 29%. Among the Independents, 52% voted for Obama, while only 44% voted for McCain.
So, Republicans don’t seem to be polling well amongst Moderates or Independents (many of whom I would bet are Moderates). Given the numbers involved here, it seems that a good strategy for Republicans would be to try and build a Right-Center coalition of voters. A good strategy, that is, if they want to win elections.
For Moderates, it might not make the most sense politically. Given their numerical advantage over Liberals, it might make more sense for disaffected Moderates (who are apparently NOT wanted by the far-right in the Republican Party) to align with the moderates of the Democratic Party and pull the Democrats towards a firm, centrist position.
A strong Center-Left coalition could have a couple of advantages for Moderates at this point:
- Since the Democrats already control the Congress AND the Presidency, they would have easier access to political power.
- Since they could potentially be a larger voting segment of the party than the Liberal wing, they would have an easier time pulling the Democratic Party to a more centrist position than they would with the Republican Party. I’m sure the Blue Dog Coalition and the New Democrat Coalition wouldn’t mind more Moderate voters.
Now, I’m no political wonk and I don’t play one on T.V., but it seems to me that if the hardcore, Conservatives run off all of the Moderates (and scare off the Independents), they are going to lock themselves into a minority position nationally. If that happens, the Republican Party could end up as a footnote in Wikipedia’s section on 21st Century U.S. history (21st Century Dixiecrats, anyone?).
Of course, Mr. De Seno might simply like being seen as that grumpy old guy down the street, who is known for sitting on his front porch screaming “Keep off my lawn, I don’t like your kind around here!!!” at anyone who passes by. He might be sitting there all alone, but at least he won’t have to worry about anyone messing up his turf.
That doesn’t sound like a winning plan to me, though.
Link Roundup:
Will Everyone Named McCain Please Leave the Republican Party! « FOX Forum « FOXNews.com.
Local Exit Polls – Election Center 2008 – Elections & Politics from CNN.com.
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